Abductive Inference and C. S. Peirce: 150 Years Later

This paper is about two things: (i) Charles Sanders Peirce (1837–1914)—an iconoclastic philosopher and polymath who among the greatest of American minds. (ii) Abductive inference—a term coined by C. S. Peirce, which he defined as “the process forming explanatory hypotheses. It only logical operation introduces any new idea.”1. inference quantitative economics. plays a fundamental role in empirical scientific research tool for discovery data analysis. Heckman Singer (2017) strongly advocated “Economists should abduct.” Arnold Zellner (2007) stressed that “much greater emphasis on reductive [abductive] teaching econometrics, statistics, economics would be desirable.” But currently, there are no established theory or practical tools can allow an analyst to abduct. attempts fill this gap introducing principles concrete procedures Economics Statistics community. I termed proposed approach Inference Machine (AIM).2. The historical Peirce’s experiment. In 1872, conducted series experiments determine distribution response times auditory stimulus, widely regarded one most significant statistical investigations history nineteenth-century mathematical (Stigler Ann Stat 239–265, 1978). On 150th anniversary experiment, we look back at Peircean-style abductive through modern lens. Using data, it shown how analysts abduct systematic automated manner using AIM.